The Black Swans Have Yet To Come Home To Roost . . .
The current economic crisis has yet to make itself felt in all of its fury. One of the most sensible commentators is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former "quant" on Wall Street. I've been recomending his book "The Black Swan" for more than a year.
Here is a very recent interview with the author on Charlie Rose, note: it is not for the faint of heart!
One piece of silver lining is that Mr Taleb recommends a portfolio balance in safe cash/bonds and only 10 to 20 per cent in high risk investments because the "medium risk investments" have hidden risks. That could be good for venture funds. Somebody should start a Black Swan Fund.
Here is Mr Taleb's web site: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the courage to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Here is Mr Taleb getting angry about bankers and economists. "The crisis might not even have started yet..."
Great interview with Mr Taleb.