MSFT: Setting Up Facebook For Failure?
By Tom Foremski - November 27, 2007
Tuesday evening I'm in Roy's fusion Hawaiian restaurant in San Francisco with an excellent group of journalists and industry people. The Conversation Group hosted the event featuring their clients and others, in a panel-type presentation.
The panel consisted of:
Om Malik, Editor & Founder of GigaOM
Jeremiah Owyang, Senior Analyst and Web Strategist at Forrester Research
Salim Ismail, Head of Yahoo's Brickhouse
Chris Heuer, Partner at The Conversation Group (moderator)Jeremiah Owyang
I'm seated in a good spot, between Jeff Nolan and David Spark. Spitting distance opposite me is Dave McClure, another favorite of mine. Unfortunately our end of the table is not very well behaved, in fact, most of the table fights for some of the conversation versus our esteemed panel, some of whom are paying for our dinner [which made for a fun evening].
We talked about social networks, and one question that emerged from The Conversation Group, [the PR agency representing some of the people there] was "how can marketeers involve themselves in our social recommendations?"
My answer is that there is no place for them at all, or if there is, they had better tread very carefully.
I will recommend things to my social network only on an occasional basis. Why should I spam my friends or allow Facebook to spam my friends about my consumer choices?
I would probably avoid any online service that seeks to make money from my recommendations, or that offers me a share of that monetization.
[How much money could I make anyway? It would devalue my recommendations to friends if I was seen to be making money.]
For now, Facebook works for me because it hasn't yet started to monetize my network, it provides a lot of positive value, and very little negative value. Once it does ratchet up the negative value by trying to monetize my "social graph," and if it does it in an offensive manner, then I will stop using it. Once I stop visiting my "social graph" on Facebook then that's it for Facebook's ability to monetize my network.
I think this could be the Achilles' heel of social networks--if you push the monetization too far--you will lose your networks.
If I don't visit my social network because the owners are trying to monetize the heck out of it, then they have lost.
I love businesses such as CraigsList and Dogster because they leave a ton of money on the table. They know that you have to provide ten times the value and more, as you pull out of the business in terms of advertising. And their users are loyal and passionate because of that.
Yet Facebook doesn't understand this yet--and it is on a slippery slope.
With MSFT's recent investment is it is now a $15 billion company but it doesn't have the revenues (yet) to support that valuation.
MSFT's investment could be setting Facebook up for failure. Because it forces Facebook to prove its valuation and the only way it can do that is by increasing the monetization of its service through advertising.
The negative aspects of being on Facebook are set to increase without any additional services that provide a positive value for Facebook members.
That means our experience of Facebook is likely to diminish in quality as it tries to justify its valuation.
Is MSFT setting it up Facebook for failure? It's an interesting strategy.
Technorati Tags: facebook developer, social media, social responsibility
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November 27, 2007 | Permalink | Comment | Category: Social Media | Subscribe to SVW
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Comments (8)
In her article after Facebook's recent press conference announcing their advertising strategy, NY Times reporter Louise Story selected the following quote to predict the social networking flavor of the month's fate:
Mr. Zuckerberg said he thought this system would make the site feel “less commercial,” because the marketing messages will be accompanied by comments from friends. When asked about people who might not like ads, Mr. Zuckerberg shrugged and said, “I mean, it’s an ad-supported business.”
Posted: November 28, 2007 8:30 AM
Lots of businesses are able to balance advertising and profitability targets with consumer satisfaction that is generated by trust and confidence in commercially sold products. You can't buy trust and confidence, you earn trust and confidence. Facebook needs to figure out a way to balance the need to make money with maintaining the trust and confidence of its customers. Just because they've stumbled with Beacon's implementation doesn't mean they are doomed.
Where I would start at Facebook is to be completely open and honest about what they are doing so that people can really decide whether or not to opt into any particular data sharing schemes. Let's face it; a lot of people (including quite a few school kids) are clueless when it comes to how network based sharing of data works. Taking advantage of that ignorance is bad; doing something openly and honestly to combat that ignorance would be good.
Dennis D. McDonald
Alexandria, Virginia
http://www.ddmcd.com
Posted: November 28, 2007 2:35 PM
Build the audience and their dollars will follow...or not.
Posted: November 28, 2007 6:41 PM
Tom: you've hit on a great issue here. FB is doing a balancing act on a high wire with MSFT looming in the background. They clearly risk alienating the tribal clan if they go after the ad dollar too hard, exploiting personal information and more. People want to converse with friends--the community thing--and not worry about whether they're a clever front for FB's latest marketing scheme. While Craigslist continues to enjoy its halo effect, FB could lose it in a heartbeat with the wrong moves. It will have to work hard to build up--and retain--our trust.
Posted: November 28, 2007 10:40 PM
Mark; Exactly. You have to create at least ten times the goodwill you seek to monetize. VCs are drooling about all the money Craigslist "leaves on the table." What the VCs don't get is that sites such as Craigslist "get" their communities. I'm not sure Facebook understands this kind of relationship yet now it has placed itself in the position of having to justify its valuation. It's a very risky time for Facebook--especially since a consumer recession is looming hard.
Posted: November 29, 2007 8:25 PM
hey tom -
had a great time chatting / sparring with you & other folks over dinner... very enjoyable evening :)
while i don't agree with all your opinions / perspectives, your piece above is definitely one of the more insightful analyses i've read lately.
nice job.
- dave mc
Posted: November 30, 2007 11:47 AM
Thanks Dave! Always good to see you too...
Posted: November 30, 2007 4:30 PM
Hmmm, "Facebook Failure" Tom?
Wasn't it you, a mere 60 or so days ago, that said if you are not on facebook, I'm writing you off? And now we talk of failure?
That hissing noise you hear in the background is the air coming out of facebooks beach-ball valuation. No achieveable amount monetization could justify that valuation.
Maybe if fbook said we are "aggregating eyeballs" instead of "users" people would see this for the late 90's sham that it is.
Any company with a Chief Revenue Officer, that's not the Chief Executive Officer...
http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?execbios
has issues.
Matt Greeley
CEO, Brightidea.com
www.brightidea.com
Posted: December 3, 2007 8:22 AM