The rise of the bad competitor . . . Craigslist et al

By Tom Foremski - May 8, 2006

I've been thinking about "bad competitors" after coming across this excellent speech on the future of newspapers by Phil Meyer, Knight Chair in Journalism, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill at a conference in August 2005. [Craig Newmark is founder of Craigslist, the classified advertising company.]

...they [newspapers] don’t have a monopoly. As sure as Craig Newmark is sitting in this room, they don’t have a monopoly on classified advertising, and there’s lots of other stuff they no longer have a monopoly on. They have a monopoly on being newspapers. But that’s not the point. The point is that the services they provide are being provided cheaper and more efficiently...by somebody else. I first met Craig at this meeting and I shook his hand and I said, “Craig, you are what the Harvard Business School calls a bad competitor.” A bad competitor is somebody who will provide a better service at a lower profit margin. Since Craig isn’t interested in any profit margin at all, he’s about as bad a competitor as you can get. And this is going to continue.

Check out the The Sunday Times (of London) recent feature on Craigslist quoting Craig Newmark and Craigslist CEO Jim Buckmaster:

From Sunday Times May 7 magazine: Falling for super-geek


. . .Newmark drives a Prius, a petrol-saving hybrid car. Buckmaster has never owned a car. They both take the bus to work in the morning. “I don’t really want a Rolls-Royce or a huge, fancy house,” says Buckmaster. “Money is important until you have enough of it to be comfortable with. Beyond that, I think it’s a very mixed bag.”

. . . For Newmark and Buckmaster, the internet has a higher calling than money-making. It’s a view many shared at the start of the dotcom revolution. But one by one, Craigslist’s contemporaries at firms like eBay and Google have joined the rat race and made billions. The Craigslist duo could easily join the dotcom rich list if they chose to sell the company. The idea is anathema to them.

. . .Classified Intelligence Report, an industry newsletter, found that in San Francisco the main newspapers lost over $50m in classified revenues in 2004 because of the Craigslist effect.

[Please note: I am friends with the Craigslist team, and have eaten many a meal at the generous table of Jim Buckmaster and Susan Best, and Craig is often there too...]

There are bad competitors in the enterprise IT arena, especially if you look at the way enterprise software competitors are trying to turn their competitor's core markets into commodities.

Nicholas Carr over at Rough Type says it well (in reference to one of my posts about SAPs strategy.)

From Stack War:

SAP's trying to commoditize the database, by promoting, for instance, the open-source MySQL; Oracle's trying to commoditize middleware, also by promoting open-source options; and IBM's happy to commoditize the applications (while maintaining an escape hatch to "business process automation" up above the stack).

It's an interesting dynamic that, in total, would seem to simply accelerate the commoditization of everything.

-And you can see it in the music industry too. Take a look at Yahoo Music, one of my favorite web services. For just $5 per month I get access to an amazing catalog of music, any time, any place, even from a friend's computer-- you'll never use iTunes again. You'll certainly never buy another $20 CD.

-Take a look at the dozens of me-too companies in each category funded by Silicon Valley venture capitalists. There are more than a 120 news aggregators for example, and more coming. How many "wiki" companies are there? Every new idea in what they call "Web 2.0" is copied and commoditized within weeks.

-The outsourcing business is driven by bad competitors. Overseas IT services companies that do it for far less than local companies. They could get more money for their services but choose not to so that they can win more business.

-Somehow, in the 1980s, the US chip industry managed to persuade the US government to punish its bad competitors. In those days it was the Japanese memory chip makers and Intel (INTC) was leading the push for tariffs against Japanese competitors for "dumping" on the US market. Dumping meant producing chips for less than the cost of their production, to win market share. That became illegal.

-Robert Scoble, Microsoft's top blogger creates millions of dollars in good PR for his employer for the cost of an engineer's salary, about $100k. Microsoft's PR agency Waggoner Edstrom cannot compete with the ROI on Mr Scoble. It's something PR companies everywhere will have to face.

And there are many other examples of competitors either behaving stupidly and ruining the market for everyone. Or, competitors that don't monetize the markets to their fullest opportunity and thus are not creating wealth for themselves, their investors, or their employees.

So where does this trend lead?

Should it be illegal to make a loss in order to gain market share?

Should it be illegal for companies to make bad decisions that ruin the market for everyone?

Does a company have a moral or ethical obligation to increase the monetization of a market so that it can employ more people and provide additional services for its communities?

Are companies that use very profitable business groups to prop up less profitable businesses groups acting as bad competitors? For example, Hewlett-Packard's printer group has subsidized the IT group in the past.

Are the telcos and cable TV companies "good competitors" because they seek to block any Internet threat that would commoditize their services and thus force massive layoffs??

This bad competitor trend will only intensify because it can't be stopped.

What happens next?



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By Tom Foremski - May 8, 2006 | Permalink | Comment | Category: Future Watch
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Comments (11)

I think the Craigslist example is spurious. The ability of Craigslist to fill a need, that is allowing people to aggregate an audience around a single event (e.g. “selling a dog house”), at an extremely low cost is a function of the technology and how it has driven the cost out of the system.

The ability to aggregate the audience around traditional classified ads is in decline, not because Craig drives a Prius, but because the ability to deliver an audience to the seller of the doghouse has dramatically reduced. There is a cost however to deliver that service, mostly labor, infrastructure and bandwidth services, so the statement that they are not interested in profits is not strictly true. If the truly want Craigslist to survive they need to make a profit in order to maintain and invest in the company. This is a truism. The alternative is to continue to raise capital, but then your motivations of the owners get skewed towards profits.

The same too goes for MySQL, a quasi volunteer, shared cost model. (I say shared source because many of the programmers are paid by corporations to work on the project). MySQL has simply been able to dramatically reduce the cost of delivering a database to the market, so it has a removed an amazing amount of cost out of the system and delivered to a new broader audience. SAP then looks towards a vendor that is able to deliver the functionality required for their product. Their motivation is in the ability to use the low cost delivery model of MySQL for there own benefit. This is not bad competition, simply smart competition.

An example of bad competition where a competitor will maximize short term behavior over long term benefit. Short-term behavior is continually under pricing products in order to buy market share with out a strategy for returning to the market equilibrium. This drives down market expectations makes it difficult to return profitable market equilibrium. These are classic characteristics of poor business judgment. Fortunately these companies are short lived and usually die on the vine, to be replaced by companies with long-term profitability goals.

Markets always return to equilibrium over time, then if it is a new equilibrium then that is good too.


hk:

hi tom, this is well understood by econ/marketing profs at business school. you're only as good as your competitors - if they drop the margins on your products, they can get you to commodity status faster. the other points you mention are what happens when you have complementary products in your value chain - it's also a known strategy principle that you should commoditize the rest of your chain, ie. your vertical competitors (but not your own place in the chain, which is determined by your immediate horizontal competitors) in order to seize maximum margin, especially if those complementary goods are obstacles to adoption. it's why oracle, etc would commoditize middleware to sell databases, and why apps guys would want to commoditize databases in order to sell apps, and services guys wnat to commoditize everything to sell services, etc, etc


Not pursuing short-term profits in order to gain short-term market share and long-term larger profits is'nt bad competition. Its good strategy. And not pursuing profits at all, short or long term, is'nt bad competition either. Its the not-for-profit model. There's surely a place for that model because there are employees, employers and consumers who have valid reasons to get organized and participate in that alternative model. I'm also sure the for-profit players have enough financial resource to compete with a not-for-profit competitor. If they lack the creativity, or market audience, or additional value offered at a premium, well, then they need to address their own competitiveness.


There is a flip-side interpretation. That is not that the new players are "bad competitors" but that the cost structures of the old players are overly expensive and obsolete in a globalized economy which uses the Internet.

That is what Chinese and Indian outsourcing are doing to US manufacturing. And that is what Skype and VoIP are doing to the telcos. Inevitably, this means that the old cost structure must be destroyed, and a new cost structure which more accurately reflects real costs must be built. Delaying the process with protective regulations will simply make the old players irrelevant.


Tom Foremski - Silicon Valley Watcher [TypeKey Profile Page]:

It's an interesting subject. Because if you think abut it, Silicon Valley has several thousand "bad competitors" straining to be let loose on the world. The innovation that startups are trying to develop has to be hugely disruptive and ideally, offer ten times the benefit for one-tenth the cost. There is no way a competitor could respond quickly enougth to such a challenger--they couldn't downsize quickly enough...

And that is where everything is heading, the commoditisation of everything; except you get a bit of defensive rear-guard action from the Telcos that is delaying things a bit in that sector...


Tom Foremski - Silicon Valley Watcher [TypeKey Profile Page]:

PS - Regarding Craigslist, it's an excellent service that provides a lot of benefit to each community. But classified ads used to be one key revenue stream that used to pay for professional journalism. In a way, the newspapers were using classified ad revenues to subsidise the Front End -- the journalism ,which is of considerable benefit to each community. Personally, I think that Craigslist shuld build the Front End out and become even more useful, but that's just me :-)


We've launched a web application similar to Craigslist, but it specifically targets the NY area. www.nyposting.com focuses on the NY online community, and allows users to preview posts before actually clicking on them, and to respond to user postings through an online form rather than having to open a seperate e-mail client. NY Posting also includes new categories for college students. People are saying "nyposting.com is the Craigslist of NY."


Tom Foremski:

How is Ny Posting doing? Are you able to support yourself? What community servies do you offer in competiton to Craigslist? Is this a viable busineess model?
Sorry to pepper you but inquiring minds want to know... :-)


Anonymous:

NY Posting.com at http://www.nyposting.com is doing just great (Hopefully, we'll get investors in the future to lend us a hand). Many users are thankful for the free service we're providing, and they're getting good responses to their posts. CL will soon start to charge for the housing section, and so many users are disappointed. NY Posting focuses on the NY area...thus, NY, like SF, will have something to be proud of. Hope this answers the above.


JR:

I use Cox cable internet, Cox's media empire printed classifieds is one of their big revenue drivers. Guess what? If you try to access Craigslist over Cox Cable internet... its nearly impossible! It appears that they throttle access to craigslist - as a matter of fact there have been a zillion complaints but hey, who can blame Cox? They're trying to stop the opening cap in their money dam! Maybe you should investigate this tip further. Cheers


It depends how you measure competition. Is it by value or is it in the fringy margin after cost.

Robert Scoble creates value/s. These are real assets and as tangible as, for example, the reputation of a CEO. You can sell that kind of value on the NYSE for greenbacks.

Our problem is we still count using greebacks instead of fingers. Which is the metaphor?

The big problem is that we can't put intangibles on the ballance sheet. If we did the ROI of most organisations would be pathetic.

The real value is in relationships and non of the economists dare put that into their thinking.
It will have to come ... but not just yet huh!


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