Real men have fabs. . .chipmakers profit from making their own
By Tom Foremski - September 20, 2005
There was an interesting presentation by Bryan Lewis, chief chip analyst at Gartner Dataquest, at the recent Infineon media and analyst conference. His presentation and discussion with Robert LeFort, president of Infineon North America, indicates a trend against fabless chipmakers. [Infineon is a founding sponsor of Silicon Valley Watcher.]
For more than 20 years the rise of the fabless chipmaker has been a seemingly unstoppable trend. Fabs these days cost $2bn or more and are difficult to operate and you have to run them at near full capacity otherwise you lose lots of money.
It makes perfect sense to outsource the manufacture to foundries, which focus on perfecting the many manufacturing processes during the three month long production process required to create today's advanced chips.
But many chipmakers were reluctant to go fabless. In the early 1990s, T.J. Rodgers, head of Cypress Semiconductor, said "Real men have fabs," and this phrase was taken up by others, including Motorola, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. It represented a catchy backlash against the fabless trend.
However, it is is difficult to argue against the economics of the fabless business model. A catchy phrase doesn't change the fact that fabs are extremely expensive and difficult to run effectively.
Why outlay more than $2bn in capital costs to build your own fab when you can email your chip design to a foundry in Taiwan or Singapore and collect your chips 90 days later?
Fabless and fabulous
That's why fabless chipmakers have done very well. For example, Qualcomm and Broadcom are fabless and are among the top ten chipmakers worldwide by revenue. And there are hundreds of other fabless chipmakers.
Owning your own fabs is something that Infineon has continued to do despite the strong argument for a fabless business model. Intel, AMD, IBM and others also build and operate their own fabs. And many of the chipmakers partner on fabs, or jointly work on research projects developing new manufacturing processes.
Now, as we push Moore's Law ever onwards, the pendulum seems to be swinging towards fab owners. What has changed is that there is a strong link developing between the design of the chip and the manufacturing process.
Each fab makes its chips slightly different from other facilities. It is all partly black magic in that the settings on the many machines make a big difference in how many good chips can be cut out of a silicon wafer.
This connection between design and the manufacturing process is much tighter these days than ever before. And optimizing chip designs to fit your fab is becoming a competitive advantage.
However, fabless chip companies mostly use design tools that do not take into account the many subtleties of the manufacturing process at their foundry. Yet the atomic scale geometries of today's chips are affected by tiny variations in the production process.
This means that those chipmakers that own and operate fabs will be at a competitive advantage over those that don't. They will get much better yields of good chips to bad chips. T.J. Rodgers was right [eventually:-) ].
By Tom Foremski - September 20, 2005 | Permalink | Category: Tech Watch
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Comments (2)
Real Men have Fabs is a bit trite.
This is coming from a 22yr veteran process engineer.
The Real Issue - is how to best make money from microdevices and to have your company prosper and grow.
It is not a question of $B fabs, versus nothing, it is a question of given your assets ( human, capital and plant ) how do you maximize profits. Oftentimes it is too easy to give up and take the easy way out.
Given any kind of business model you can make money if you bother to sweat the details, understand the markets and sell well and profitably.
One excellent fab model with no $B fab vain ego, is the superbly run Linear Technology. They sweat the details and there are NO $B capital expeditures in sight. I once ran into an IT Support engineer from LT and he was alternately meekly bemoaning the old computers running the business and taking pride in the fact they were old machines ( DEC Alphas and older PCs ) but that LT's profits ran like clockwork.
The main unspoken weakness of Fabless models is that there is mostly a huge overeliance on PEACE between CHINA and TAIWAN, that is in fact pretty darn shakey at present. That is the unspoken risk hardly ever faced with a degree of reality by any articles .
Fabless IC yields are significantly harder to improve, because the interface between the Fabless engineers and the Foundry has natural Boundaries of significance not to be trifled with. Only weak management or engineers expect the impossible and misplan with abandon.
This makes it for a substantive limiter in rate of yield improvement ( process learning for device specific issues ) but there are also other factors to consider in the Fabless business model.
Fabless devices which use bleeding edge processes MUST have high enough ASP's / Margin, to accomodate the slower rate of Yield Learning. Facts of Life in the Fabless perspective. It is not better nor worse, but different.
Low margin Fabless product types have much less margin for gross yield glitches than High Margin Fabless devices, as margins and asps are typically in a range that is consdierably less forgiving of low yield or yield glitches.
Another aspect to this subject is that FABs ( factories really ), to be run well, take a certain strength of stomach so to speak, that many North American microelectronics manufacturers sometimes are weak in.
Posted: October 1, 2005 2:22 PM
cont'd
Case in Point was the mid-80's "Fear" of the Japanese vaunted IC manufacturing skills. Both National Semiconductor and Intel at the time "succumbed" to the exaggerations, and for the time in the mid 80's there was a modest cry wolf attitude, the sky is falling, etc., about the future of IC Fab Manufacturing in the US.
This was greatly overblown, and Intel, through Barrett's superb manufacturing Accumen, blew that one out of the water - with the result that Intel is the biggest FAB business and most successful today.
Yet some Intel and other managers of wafer fab domain in the mid-to early 80's - were pretty timid technical manufacturing leaders as one might call it.
The cry of the loss of DRAMs is case in point that in retrospec had to do with absence of "thinking mans elbow grease" at the time, by some pretty prestigous folks, some lesser known, but very well credentialled "leaders", reaching the wrong conclusions prematurely, and very wrongly.
Despite the credentials of those involved, the cries of "the sky is falling" - now seem pretty hollow.
Barrett busted through the mental barriers that were then characterized by some leaders in Oregon in those "long ago" days, and proved the timid folks wrong, thank goodness.
The seeds of FAB supremacy of Intel today were laid with the Battle Cry of Gambati in Livermore and elsewhere ( Gambati is Japanese for On-Guard or similar ).
Limits of capability are often in the mind, from weaknesses of discipline of thought. Fabless is best for those who do not have the stomach to manage the huge complexity of FAB manufacturing and Yield Improvement. Quite daunting even to the "best" of engineers, if you don't keep your nose to the grindstone and focus focus focus, and do so strictly pragmatically.
It is too easy to overcomplicate pretty straightforward yield problems, and miss how to do the real yield improvement in fab. Often times yield is held down due to not paying attention to details, and you cannot every take anything for granted ever.
The phrase of the Reagan years - "Trust but Verify" is a mantra appropriate for fab yield improvement. If you let rest technical issues due to bureaucratic ( artificial ) boundaries, and your own FAB's yield suffers - you have no-one else to blame but yourself. It is nice to complain, but better to work hard and sweat the details.
Case in point is that time after time, low yields persist because someone or many, did not pay attention, and misinterpreted data or the limits to an experiment. Often this is subtle to the unsuspecting, but when all hell breaks loose - you better know your stuff cold.
Despite the sometimes seemingly grimy aspect of manufacturing - success at the art requires discipline and insight that some do not have, else you better count on having wages of mainland china to accomodate your sloth.
The trite phrase "Real Men Have Fabs" ( from someone who has an epi reactor explosion under his belt ) is overused and at times inappropriate.
"Real Men" pay attention to the details of their business and do not stray from their responsibilities FAB or FABLESS, catchy phrases notwithstanding.
Posted: October 1, 2005 2:27 PM