Tech Watch: Intel doubles the fun in roadmap change
By Tom Foremski - October 15, 2004
Joe Fay, US Editor at Computerwire has penned an interesting analysis of the changes in Intel’s microprocessor roadmap. He asks how Intel will produce chips twice as large and sell them for about the same price as current products?
These forthcoming dual core microprocessors are large chips yet Intel says it will sell them at similar price points to its single core microprocessors.
It’s going to be an interesting challenge for Intel. I’ve covered this company for more than twenty years, and they have become a chip manufacturing powerhouse—accelerating down the Moore’s Law highway ahead of almost everyone(IBM is up there with them).
The way Intel will deal with such a challenge is the way it always does--with its core competency: manufacturing. It will open up the faucet on its 300mm production lines and push toward smaller geometries. The use of larger wafers and smaller geometries should allow Intel to reduce production costs faster than the growth in the size of their chips.
There is a lot of drama here.
Can Intel make the jump to the next shrink of chip geometries?
Will it be tripped up with a design issue as these chips become so huge and complex?
Can it maintain yield levels, since larger chips are more prone to contamination and the dustbin?
On that last one Intel should be fine. The new 300mm factories are a lot cleaner than the older generation of fabs, because they got rid of the main contaminant—people.
The bunny suits and gloves and goggles that semiconductor workers wear are not to protect the person. The bunny suits are there to protect the chips.
Even in bunny suits and goggles, people shed huge numbers of microscopic particles, and just one can spoil a chip—it will block out part of the wiring. The new 300mm wafer fabs, dinner-plate sized silicon disks, are processed in canisters that are too heavy to be carried by people from one process step to another.
The latest generation of chip fabs are more highly automated than ever, to limit exposure to humans. With fewer people working the fabs, I wonder why some communities try to lure large chip makers to build fabs in their region, with large tax incentives and other material benefits.
A local job boom from such ventures would seem to be short-lived and shrinking over the long term--along with the die shrinks.
By Tom Foremski - October 15, 2004 | Permalink
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Comments
Luca Penati on Tripit Builds Following for Online Travel Plans
I LOVE Tripit!
Tom Foremski on Advanced Micro Devices Spins Off Chip Plants as a Foundry Joint Venture
Doubtful: Historically AMD has had yield problems and Hector Ruiz did a great job in improving production. Either way, being in the fab business is challenging enough and AMD's ATI knows the fabless business model very well. Best to stick to designs than running fabs, IMHO. But Intel could put a stop to that.
I think Intel should be a bit lenient with AMD, it's good to have competition. But Intel has a take no prisoners attitude when it comes to competitors.
Luca on UPDATE: Intel Challenge to AMD Fab Spin Off
I am 99% sure it's 2. Usually IP licensing agreements are very specific about the identity of the licensee and what is allowed. I bet AMD can't do this without Intel's approval, which will come at a very steep price...
debbie rich on When the Cloud Precipitates...Potential Problems with Online Services (and Stikipad)
Debbie here. Just to clarify, the software company that I help manage, Digital Anarchy, is the entity that lost all of its historical data. Over 1.5 years of press tracking, product revision info, vendor relationships. I brought this situation to Tom's attention because it is larger than just my company's issues. Former Stikipad customers (and folks who are confused if they ARE still customers) have found my complaints about Stikipad on my completely unadvertised personal blog and commented a
doubtful on Advanced Micro Devices Spins Off Chip Plants as a Foundry Joint Venture
Where are your getting the info on AMD low Yields?
from your sponsor Intel?
you could have said bug designs, but this happened equally to Intel!
why don't you mention that with this JV,
The intel only advantage: fab financing
is removed !
(I put monopolistic position aside waiting for multi world judgements on those practices.)
you should also mention that AMD process dev cost is shared with other major IC manufacturers like IBM Toshiba, STM, Frees
Shannon Whitley on When the Cloud Precipitates...Potential Problems with Online Services (and Stikipad)
Great topic, Tom.
Cloud Computing brings many benefits, but there will be additional risks as well. As more companies build their businesses in the cloud and utilize services (such as storage) from the likes of Amazon, Google, or Microsoft, an outage with any one company could bring down several hundred others. We should pushback and consider these risks.
As you mentioned, this pushback is healthy. We are moving forward with the technical details, but we also need to focus
mavennyc821 on The Largest Risk in Silicon Valley is Taking No Risk - Why the Economic Downturn Will Spawn Hundreds of Startups
Great post Tom, adn agree. Here's similar sentiment today on CNET:http://news.cnet.com/8301-13953_3-10060141-80.html?tag=inside
Kevin Cimring on Steve Ballmer Warns Financial Crisis Will Impact Tech Sector
Hi Tom,
It's become widely recognised and reported now that the financial crisis is and will continue to impact the tech sector. In order to survive, new start-ups will need to define revenue models upfront and will no longer be able to rely on the old "web 2.0" approach of first launching and only then worrying about revenue strategies at a later stage. For those types of companies, VC funding will be scarce.
Kevin Cimring on The "Experiential Gap" . . . and the Growing Cosmos of Twitter Applications
Hi Tom,
I enjoyed your "Experiential" piece on Twitter, as this has been my exact experience. Initially I couldn't see what all the hype was about, but I succumbed to the wave of growing publicity and gave Twitter a try. Even then, I was a little circumspect but several weeks later and I am benefitting from Twitter immensely, in various ways. I have tried to explain Twitter to my colleagues, but they still look at me as if I'm crazy - like you say, you have to be "in it" to understand
Sabrina Horn on Thought Leader Interview: - Sabrina Horn Says "Sell Like Hell!"
Thanks Tom, it was a rare opportunity to have the time to talk and ponder so many important topics. We look forward to hosting you at our place, for an under the hood look at PR at Horn Group.
Sabrina
Tom Foremski on Silicon Valley Heads for Germany as Governor Schwarzenegger Pushes for Cebit Trade Show Alliance
Thanks Florian, I did look up Rampenfest, it's pretty funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2uZZzHfgOk
Florian on Silicon Valley Heads for Germany as Governor Schwarzenegger Pushes for Cebit Trade Show Alliance
Thanks Tom for this article.
I watched the video and laughed about the German accents. They reminded me of a video called rampenfest (google it :))
Cheers and greetings from Germany,
Florian
Bravia on Worth Watching: Silicon Valley Turns Out for Steve Ballmer at Churchill Club
Thanks for that video. It was great.
Matt on Worth Watching: Silicon Valley Turns Out for Steve Ballmer at Churchill Club
good stuff, thanks Tom.
Tim Cohn on GOOG Founders Could Buy All US Newspapers and Still Have $12bn
Maybe the SEC should ban shorting them along with the Yellow Pages too.
adrian Chan on The "Experiential Gap" . . . and the Growing Cosmos of Twitter Applications
Tom,
Sounds like it might be a case of "design to the rescue!" I've been expecting that one of the next waves of innovation will come in the form of design solutions to information/data problems. Visualizations, aggregation but with more compelling visual presentation layer (and thus better or at least more interesting interactions!).
The title of your piece had me thinking that the service finds doppelgangers -- twins of interest and like mind. Are they approaching that one
Tom Foremski on Silicon Valley Rocks! Charity Event for Local Schools
Yes, we should be doing a lot more for our schools. Silicon Valley area schools should be shining showcases not basket cases. Get your tickets now!
Tom Foremski on Chris Anderson's PR Blacklist Backlash - The Long Tail of Bad PR
Branko: As as journalist for nearly 25 years I got used to the fact that not all PR people know what they are doing. And the fact that I get hundreds of pitches per day and many of them are of no use to me--is just part of the job. I screen them out without a second glance. I don't know why some journalists like Chris, get their underwear in a twist because someone pitched them an inappropriate pitch...
Andrew Pass on Silicon Valley Rocks! Charity Event for Local Schools
It's great to see people doing good for children and schools!!
Branko Collin on Chris Anderson's PR Blacklist Backlash - The Long Tail of Bad PR
"My view is that part of the problem [...]"
You mentioned earlier that there's a lot of money in PR. If that's true, then the real problem is that PR has become too successful. Which is why I don't understand these hissyfits you people throw here and at Anderson's blog. Is that part of the game of Harass the Journalist? Having some extra fun by pretending not to understand Anderson?
As for the new rift between journalists and flacks, ten years ago us journalists couldn'