September 2004 Archives
September 29, 2004
Tom Watch: I earned my first dollar today as a blogger!
This is an exciting day, because I just earned my first dollar blogging. It’s $1.45 to be exact and on just my second day with advertisements on my site. And my traffic has soared by 600 per cent since yesterday. At this rate of growth SiliconValleyWatcher.com, will be the world’s largest within just a couple of months…
Unfortunately, I can’t frame my first dollar, but maybe I can frame the screen shot of my G**gle account (I’m not supposed to even mention that there are G00Gly things down there…V or over there >, or even call them @ds, or else they could cut me off, and then how would I survive?)
My ambitions to become a micro-media-mogul are now officially underway, and it is all thanks to YOU, my (hopefully) loyal readers. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
September 29, 2004 |
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Tom Watch: I ran out of bandwidth Tuesday morning…
I am learning a lot about the daily travails of “blogging” or being a “stand-alone journalist,” as Chris Nolan puts it. You also have to be a stand alone IT expert sometimes, a stand-alone publisher, and a stand alone anything-else-that-needs to be done. That’s at least four jobs rolled into one.
I wasn’t handling the IT job very well Tuesday morning. I had been slowly rolling out this site over the past few days, just telling small groups of people at a time.
But traffic spiked up quite quickly and I ran out of bandwidth. I didn't notice for a while, then it took me hours to find the right combination of username and password to get into my service provider and open up a bigger pipe. So, my apologies, and I hope you come back.
September 29, 2004 |
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September 28, 2004
Tech Watch: Come listen to Google stories from influential angel investor Ram Shriram
This should be a very interesting evening at TIE, featuring Ram Shriram, an angel investor who played a big part in the Google story.
And TIE is promising quite a lot from Ram:
The TIE web site says:
“Google will become part of the legend of Silicon Valley. Its story will be told and retold, and like all stories, additions, admissions and omissions will occur depending on the storyteller and the listener. But the story is clearly for the telling.
And who better to share that story with us other than one of our own charter members-Ram Shriram-who was one of the original angel investors and who can share with us that personal journey he and the founders of Google took from those early years to the spectacular debut on the stock market.
Come and listen to the strategy devised in those early days and months and many ups and downs and twists and turns of building a great business.”
Mark your calendars for October 28 and book your seats here—only 250 available.
September 28, 2004 |
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Hold your Geek Beacon high--or how to flag a cab in SF part 2
Thanks for the emails and comments on my recent entry about using a Treo and its bright screen to flag a taxi down. I asked for suggestions on what to call it, to see if we could create a successful meme around it, especially since many cell phones now have bright color screens. So far, my favorite is...
...Pace’s suggestion, “the Geek Beacon.”
But, more suggestions are welcome. And hopefully we can have some fun with this and link it to San Francisco/Silicon Valley.
I just don’t want to be in New York next month and see people hailing cabs with the Geek Beacon, and calling it the “Manhattan Salute” or something, and claiming it for their own. Or, in Washington, they’ll start claiming that they invented the “Freedom Light” when hailing a cab.
No, the Geek Beacon demonstrates that indeed, we reside at the heart of all innovative thinking about everything. Yes, New York might be the center of all cultural things (yawn), and San Francisco and Silicon Valley are but a quaint fishing village next to a large business park--to the citizens of Gotham. But, they will not own the Geek Beacon. That stays here. Along with the San Francisco treat.
Join me, and hold your Geek Beacon high (especially at night.)
September 28, 2004 |
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September 26, 2004
Tom Watch: Fun with a Treo—the “Frisco Wave”
or how to flag down a taxi cab from three blocks away on a busy Friday evening.
I was running late and needed a taxi, but there were few to be seen along Geary Street, and with six lanes of traffic, it was difficult to be seen. Then, I spotted a taxi three, maybe four blocks away, but it was in a far lane, and likely unable to see me until closer, and by then it would be difficult for it to pull across two lanes of traffic to pick me up. But, pulling out my trusty Treo 600, I...
I switched on the screen, which is quite bright and large on a Treo 600, and waved it high above my head. Within seconds the taxi flashed back a response, and it had time to move across two traffic lanes, and I was in the cab and on my way.
“That was the first time I’d seen anybody do that,” Chuck Walker, the cab driver said. “That was very effective, I could see you from a long ways away. Otherwise, it’s difficult to spot people unless they step out onto the road. I told him that it was a spur of the moment thing, but that maybe we were both present at the creation of a new thing, and maybe we could launch it as a meme.
But what to call it? The taxi beacon? The taxi flash, or flash a taxi? Or, the “San Francisco wave,” which would likely be shortened to the “Frisco wave” by outsiders, much to the annoyance of San Franciscans, who generally hate the term “Frisco.”
What do you think that method of hailing a taxi cab could be called?
September 26, 2004 |
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September 25, 2004
Tech Watch: Silicon Valley's greatest success is failure...
....and copious amounts of failure.
What can be learned from failure in improving the process of commercializing innovation?
This was one of the questions posed to panel members at an SRI International event I was moderating, by Elizabeth Safran, from Trainer Communications. The event was organised by Alison Murdock, president of the IDB Network.
Elizabeth’s question about the role of failure deserves more attention, because I'm convinced that it goes to the root of Silicon Valley’s success. And it points to a fundamental quality that Silicon Valley possesses, and one that is rarely mentioned:
Silicon Valley is extremely good at failure.
In fact, it is extremely good at producing massive amounts of failure.
Curt Carlson, director of SRI, one of the largest research organisations in the US, pointed out that as few as one in 20 Silicon Valley startups succeed. And even then, they are unlikely to make it to their 13th birthday—the average lifespan of an S&P 500 corporation is 12.5 years.
With the pace of change accelerating in many industries and markets, Mr Carlson argues that we have to accelerate the process of successful innovation in order to keep up. But how?
SRI believes it has figured out part of the answer...
From years of studying successful innovation, SRI has developed a week long training course for its researchers and clients. And it seems to be working, judging by the increase in successful research projects coming out of SRI over the past two years. The course is so effective in raising productivity that Mr. Carlson has asked that every employee of SRI, not just researchers, take the course.
I wrote a column on this subject recently for the Financial Times.
The SRI training is no guarantee of success in commercializing innovation. But it will help to kill an unviable project.
Or as Dave Blakely from the research organization IDEO, puts it, “We have to get better at failing early and make our mistakes earlier.”
Another question asked was if there was a way to document what goes wrong in early venture companies and create some sort of central database of what not to do.
Lee Burrows, vice president at VC firm VantagePoint Venture Partners said, “We perform our own post-mortems but it is impossible to collect all the information and document it, because people would not publicly reveal a lot of key mistakes that were made. Or name names.”
Nand Mulchandani, CEO of Determina, said, “What does happen is that new ventures are formed that have teams of people that have worked together in the past. That way, you can try to aggregate the experience of failure in the hope that people have learned from past mistakes.”
It reminded me of a recent conversation with Mike Sheridan, a partner at Mohr Davidow Ventures, “You get back into the trenches with the people that were in the foxhole with you the last time.”
The panel couldn’t provide easy answers to how best commercialize innovation. All of them said recruitment of good people is key. And finding people who can work as a team is essential. Easier said than done.
Other interesting points from the panel:
Norman Winarsky, vice president at SRI International.
--Make sure you are talking with potential customers as much as possible, as often as possible. There are too many examples of ventures emerging after 18 months and finding that their target market has moved on and has no use for their product.
--Don’t invent a technology and then go looking for a market.
--We have seen a lot more success when researchers are involved with customers as early as possible in the development process.
David Blakey, IDEO.
--I’ve seen so many companies not bother using simple prototyping tools to create a mock-up of their product, or not use graphics tools to see what the user interface might be like. These simple procedures would have shown up problems early in the development process.
--You cannot innovate by sitting in a conference room. You have to get out of the room and onto the road.
--The most successful companies we’ve found have a strong, heartfelt connection with the customer.
Nand Mulchandani, CEO, Determina.
--It’s all about team building. Cultural integration is a big part of my job, integrating new people into the team.
--When you start up a company, you round up the usual suspects, people you know because trust is very important. Then as you grow, you create extended networks of trusted people.
Laurie Yoler, chief development officer, Intellectual Ventures:
--I don’t think it is possible to have a cookie-cutter approach to innovation. Although there is a cookie cutter approach in terms of getting funding, in terms of presenting that information.
--Researchers can have a difficult time transitioning into a startup venture because they were interested in solving a problem rather than being involved in marketing and business development.
Lee Burrows, VantagePoint Venture Partners:--You need people with different sets of skills at different points in the life of a venture. We’ve often seen that a startup CEO might not be the best person to lead the company after a couple of years. There has to be a willingness to step aside and learn, so that in a future venture, that person has those skills.
--Revenues are the only measure of success that we look at.
Interesting comments from conversations after the panel:
Clay Bullwinkel, of Bullwinkel Consulting--Poland is becoming an interesting place for outsourcing these days. Costs of outsourcing work to India are rising as wages are increasing, and there is a lot of staff turnover. Poland is being increasingly being recognized as a viable alternative.
Gregory Ruff, G.L. Ruff & Company:-Silicon Valley is too incestuous, we spend way too much time listening to ourselves and sucking up our own exhaust. There is a lot of innovation happening in other parts of the world.
Juan-Antonio Carballo, IBM Venture Group:
--We are keeping a very close eye on Silicon Valley because we need to know who to work with, who to partner with. We are in the solutions business, so we need to know what is out there that we can use.
September 25, 2004 |
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September 24, 2004
Bits and Bites: A Friday collection...
Ellisa Feinstein sent this in--very funny. A word of warning to my fellow journalists, please do not try this at home...or at the office.
Ellisa writes: "PR people are always given advice on how to work with the media. Here's a link for journalists on "How to Handle PR People." Enjoy ;)".....
http://www.honk.co.uk/fleetstreet/prfaq.htm
And there is more...William Hambricht, Steve Jobs, and is a Silicon Valley Starbucks a good place to place to recruit a startup team?
Is there a CFO in the house?
"The great thing about Silicon Valley is that I can pull together a startup team so quickly. This place has all the talent you need, and it is often right under your nose," said Nand Mulchandani, CEO of Determina, when I met him the other day at an SRI International event.
I started wondering...would it be possible to stride into a Silicon Valley Starbucks and recruit an entire management team? I bet you could get at least two thirds of the team, maybe the rest at the laundromat.
Anybody want to try it? Let me know....it could be a fun.
William Hambricht, the man behind the Google IPO auction, was on Charlie Rose a few weeks back. I Tivo'd it but didn't watch it until recently.
He made a killer point and it went something like this:
"You've always known that half your advertising dollars are wasted, but, you never knew which half. Google figured it out, with its pay for performance advertising."
This is exactly why I believe print advertising will decline further. It's taken several years, but ad agencies now know how to track online ad performance, and more importantly, they can produce solid ROI numbere, plus they get lots of ancillary customer data to explore.
Print advertising can't offer that kind of value; you can only estimate an ROI, and there is usually little in customer data produced.
There are many dead men walking out there, still waiting for print advertising to come back...
Stonestown mall gets an Apple Store.
You have to hand it to Apple. Its Apple stores are hot. About one in seven of Apple's revenue dollars come through its stores--and they are very profitable.
The Apple Store in downtown San Francisco is a superb example of how to control and create a high quality consumer brand experience. If HP and Dell and others want a lesson in brand support and brand experience, they should walk into that store. As Roger McNamee, our local whizz kid uberinvestor gushed earlier this year, "I've never walked into a store where I wanted to buy everything in it."
I think I had that experiecnce when I was a kid...and I know my 10 year old daughter has tried to convince me to buy entire store contents. But why stop at the store, Roger could easily buy the mall..
With the SF Apple store, there is a shocking juxtaposition to contend with. Just across the street from the minimalist design of the Apple Store building is, gasp, The Virgin Megastore! Five floors of CD's, DVD's and books.
Megastore...how touchingly 1980s...mom and dad are browsing for CDs while the kids are at the Apple Store, checking out a DJ workshop on mixing audio tracks.
Here we have two companies with rock star CEOs, two lifestyle-focused companies. Which one is tired? Has Sir Richard spent too much time in his ballon, in the rarefied atmosphere of our blue planet?
SVW Scoop: Did you know that Steve Jobs designed the upstairs theater in the Apple store? He personally selected the chairs himself (by the way, a very stylish choice Steve, nice one.)
Steve Jobs is rumored to be up for the top job at Disney, and I know that Steve would run that business with great gusto. I can see him now, overseeing the installation of the sprinklers outside ABC’s headquarters. I'm not saying Steve has a reputation as a micro-manager, he's just very detailed oriented.
And there's nothing wrong with that. You certainly won’t hear Apple Computer or Pixar investors complaining. Over the past few years they have done very well thank you, under Jobs.
September 24, 2004 |
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September 22, 2004
PR Watch: No downturn down here as PR companies scramble for bodies
From a Wall Street vantage point the tech sector doesn't look that good right now. Earnings season is coming up and there are unlikely to be many positive surprises from Silicon Valley's public companies.
However, things are cooking in the private company sector, and Silicon Valley's PR companies are scrambling to fill new positions.
One large PR agency, which I'd rather not name...
...has 13 job openings. And many smaller PR companies are also looking for people. This is a good indicator of the strength of the local economy, since startups need representation. And increasingly, many startups are looking for PR companies to present their story to the business press, rather than just the trade press, says Marianne O Conner, president of Sterling Communications, one of the top tier local PR agencies. "Many companies have found that greater visibility in the business press can help them in many ways, such as making it easier to raise funding, and in recruitment," she says.
One problem, however, is that the mainstream business press mostly focuses on publicly traded companies. That is why stories about private companies are difficult to "sell" to the business press. And it is not just because they are small, either. SAS is a $1.3bn revenue software company, the largest private software company in the US. Yet coverage of SAS in the mainstream business press is rare. (There has been more press coverage on SAS in recent months, but that was in connection with the Google IPO, and comparisons with SAS' strong employee focus with that of Google.)
Silicon Valley PR agencies are hiring, but the work is tough, and some agencies are developing a reputation for burning people out very quickly.
This is partly because clients are demanding more and wanting to pay less. Clients have gotten used to being in the driver’s seat over the past few years, when PR agencies were desperate for business. But now? I think there may be a rude awakening coming up for clients…and also one for those agencies that haven't taken care of their people during the past three very tough years. We are all vulnerable to better offers.
September 22, 2004 |
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September 20, 2004
Tech Watch: Amazon’s A9 sets a value on private consumer data
The recent launch of Amazons’s search service A9 is interesting in that it has tried to establish a value on consumer data privacy--and it’s not much.
In return for allowing A9 to collect data on users of the service, and target them with commercial products and services, Amazon is offering a 1.57 per cent discount to A9 users...
...Yes, 1.57 per cent discount is better than a jab in the eye, but, is that all? Surely that personal data is worth much more than that?
It reminded me of some of the conversations I’ve had on the topic of consumer data privacy with senior executives in the tech industry. Yes, ensuring consumer data privacy is extremely important, the tech executives would say (because we don’t want the government setting new laws.) They would also note that while consumers will say they are very concerned about maintaining the privacy of personal data, they will sell that privacy very cheaply. This can be seen in things like supermarket loyalty cards, filling out “win a free vacation” cards in coffee shops, etc.
Clearly, the value of private consumer data is known, there are huge numbers of companies that collect, sell and monetize that information. But, it is not a public figure. If it were made public, I bet consumers would think twice about giving out their private data too cheaply.
I've long maintained that there is a good business opportunity in establishing a venture that would allow consumers to be gatekeepers of their own private data. A system that allows the consumer to be the gatekeeper to their private data, maintain the quality of that data, and allow access to all or part of that data to different entities. And for substantially more than a measly 1.57 per cent discount.
September 20, 2004 |
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September 19, 2004
Tech Watch: The secret barometer of Intel's health reveals...
...a slight downgrade.
I popped into the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) the other week at the Moscone center. The twice-yearly IDF is a good place to catch up with my Intel contacts and also rub shoulders with analysts and other hacks (Brit. slang for journalists in case you were wondering!).
IDF is also a good place to taste the mood of the PC industry and the mood within Intel. And on both counts, the mood was rather muted. That wasn't surprising given Intel's recent trimming of its 3rd quarter revenue forecast, and large changes in its microprocessor roadmap--not to mention Craig Barrett’s reaming of his staff in a very public memo (BTW not a good idea Craig, it is always best to keep domestic quarrels private.)
But, I did get a chance to check on my favorite barometer of Intel's health...
...Over the years of attending IDF, I've noticed a reasonably close correlation between Intel's business performance and the quality of the backpacks that conference visitors receive. In lean times, the backpacks are flimsy and made from lower grade materials. About a year ago, the quality of the backpacks at IDF jumped dramatically. And for good reason, revenues were strong and growing faster than expectations. Intel was raising revenue forecasts, not cutting them.
The Spring 2004 IDF again produced a top quality backpack, black and electric blue, with good quality ballistic nylon, and stylish use of yellow trim. It was clear that Intel was expecting a good year.
At the Fall 2004 IDF, the conference backpack looked to be of comparable quality. Closer examination, however, showed that there was some downgrade in quality, but that it was minor. Conclusion? Slight downgrade to Intel's fortunes, but still betting on a solid business outlook for the next six months.
Joe Fay, US editor of Computerwire, agreed with my careful analysis but pointed out that the contents of the backpack indicated a rebounding small technology company sector. Indeed, the backpack contained a larger number of chotkis than before. In fact, mine to contain a double amount of pens, tiny measuring tapes, and other promotional items from companies exhibiting at the conference. Conclusion? Smaller PC tech companies are raking it in--a very bullish sign.
Even without the help of my backpack barometer, it's clear that Intel remains in a very strong competitive position. The trimming of revenue forecasts for the current quarter is modest. As for the changes in its microprocessor roadmap, I would expect Intel to make changes as the market changes.
There is no way that it can predict two years ahead, what the likely best combination of microprocessor technologies are likely to be. That's why it runs many microprocessor design teams. And it staggers those projects so that it can drop a design project, or accelerate a more promising design, as market demand changes.
This is cheap insurance for a $32.7bn revenue company. Until there is a clear hit on Intel's revenues, criticizing it for making necessary changes in its business strategy, as many recent articles have done, is a useless exercise.
UPDATE-Thursday September 23
Joe Fay is now reporting that there is a strange smell eminating from his IDF backpack. He has confirmed it with colleagues. I will check mine, but if true, I may have to revisit my slight downgrade of Intel.
September 19, 2004 |
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Comments
Luca Penati on Tripit Builds Following for Online Travel Plans
I LOVE Tripit!
Tom Foremski on Advanced Micro Devices Spins Off Chip Plants as a Foundry Joint Venture
Doubtful: Historically AMD has had yield problems and Hector Ruiz did a great job in improving production. Either way, being in the fab business is challenging enough and AMD's ATI knows the fabless business model very well. Best to stick to designs than running fabs, IMHO. But Intel could put a stop to that.
I think Intel should be a bit lenient with AMD, it's good to have competition. But Intel has a take no prisoners attitude when it comes to competitors.
Luca on UPDATE: Intel Challenge to AMD Fab Spin Off
I am 99% sure it's 2. Usually IP licensing agreements are very specific about the identity of the licensee and what is allowed. I bet AMD can't do this without Intel's approval, which will come at a very steep price...
debbie rich on When the Cloud Precipitates...Potential Problems with Online Services (and Stikipad)
Debbie here. Just to clarify, the software company that I help manage, Digital Anarchy, is the entity that lost all of its historical data. Over 1.5 years of press tracking, product revision info, vendor relationships. I brought this situation to Tom's attention because it is larger than just my company's issues. Former Stikipad customers (and folks who are confused if they ARE still customers) have found my complaints about Stikipad on my completely unadvertised personal blog and commented a
doubtful on Advanced Micro Devices Spins Off Chip Plants as a Foundry Joint Venture
Where are your getting the info on AMD low Yields?
from your sponsor Intel?
you could have said bug designs, but this happened equally to Intel!
why don't you mention that with this JV,
The intel only advantage: fab financing
is removed !
(I put monopolistic position aside waiting for multi world judgements on those practices.)
you should also mention that AMD process dev cost is shared with other major IC manufacturers like IBM Toshiba, STM, Frees
Shannon Whitley on When the Cloud Precipitates...Potential Problems with Online Services (and Stikipad)
Great topic, Tom.
Cloud Computing brings many benefits, but there will be additional risks as well. As more companies build their businesses in the cloud and utilize services (such as storage) from the likes of Amazon, Google, or Microsoft, an outage with any one company could bring down several hundred others. We should pushback and consider these risks.
As you mentioned, this pushback is healthy. We are moving forward with the technical details, but we also need to focus
mavennyc821 on The Largest Risk in Silicon Valley is Taking No Risk - Why the Economic Downturn Will Spawn Hundreds of Startups
Great post Tom, adn agree. Here's similar sentiment today on CNET:http://news.cnet.com/8301-13953_3-10060141-80.html?tag=inside
Kevin Cimring on Steve Ballmer Warns Financial Crisis Will Impact Tech Sector
Hi Tom,
It's become widely recognised and reported now that the financial crisis is and will continue to impact the tech sector. In order to survive, new start-ups will need to define revenue models upfront and will no longer be able to rely on the old "web 2.0" approach of first launching and only then worrying about revenue strategies at a later stage. For those types of companies, VC funding will be scarce.
Kevin Cimring on The "Experiential Gap" . . . and the Growing Cosmos of Twitter Applications
Hi Tom,
I enjoyed your "Experiential" piece on Twitter, as this has been my exact experience. Initially I couldn't see what all the hype was about, but I succumbed to the wave of growing publicity and gave Twitter a try. Even then, I was a little circumspect but several weeks later and I am benefitting from Twitter immensely, in various ways. I have tried to explain Twitter to my colleagues, but they still look at me as if I'm crazy - like you say, you have to be "in it" to understand
Sabrina Horn on Thought Leader Interview: - Sabrina Horn Says "Sell Like Hell!"
Thanks Tom, it was a rare opportunity to have the time to talk and ponder so many important topics. We look forward to hosting you at our place, for an under the hood look at PR at Horn Group.
Sabrina
Tom Foremski on Silicon Valley Heads for Germany as Governor Schwarzenegger Pushes for Cebit Trade Show Alliance
Thanks Florian, I did look up Rampenfest, it's pretty funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2uZZzHfgOk
Florian on Silicon Valley Heads for Germany as Governor Schwarzenegger Pushes for Cebit Trade Show Alliance
Thanks Tom for this article.
I watched the video and laughed about the German accents. They reminded me of a video called rampenfest (google it :))
Cheers and greetings from Germany,
Florian
Bravia on Worth Watching: Silicon Valley Turns Out for Steve Ballmer at Churchill Club
Thanks for that video. It was great.
Matt on Worth Watching: Silicon Valley Turns Out for Steve Ballmer at Churchill Club
good stuff, thanks Tom.
Tim Cohn on GOOG Founders Could Buy All US Newspapers and Still Have $12bn
Maybe the SEC should ban shorting them along with the Yellow Pages too.
adrian Chan on The "Experiential Gap" . . . and the Growing Cosmos of Twitter Applications
Tom,
Sounds like it might be a case of "design to the rescue!" I've been expecting that one of the next waves of innovation will come in the form of design solutions to information/data problems. Visualizations, aggregation but with more compelling visual presentation layer (and thus better or at least more interesting interactions!).
The title of your piece had me thinking that the service finds doppelgangers -- twins of interest and like mind. Are they approaching that one
Tom Foremski on Silicon Valley Rocks! Charity Event for Local Schools
Yes, we should be doing a lot more for our schools. Silicon Valley area schools should be shining showcases not basket cases. Get your tickets now!
Tom Foremski on Chris Anderson's PR Blacklist Backlash - The Long Tail of Bad PR
Branko: As as journalist for nearly 25 years I got used to the fact that not all PR people know what they are doing. And the fact that I get hundreds of pitches per day and many of them are of no use to me--is just part of the job. I screen them out without a second glance. I don't know why some journalists like Chris, get their underwear in a twist because someone pitched them an inappropriate pitch...
Andrew Pass on Silicon Valley Rocks! Charity Event for Local Schools
It's great to see people doing good for children and schools!!
Branko Collin on Chris Anderson's PR Blacklist Backlash - The Long Tail of Bad PR
"My view is that part of the problem [...]"
You mentioned earlier that there's a lot of money in PR. If that's true, then the real problem is that PR has become too successful. Which is why I don't understand these hissyfits you people throw here and at Anderson's blog. Is that part of the game of Harass the Journalist? Having some extra fun by pretending not to understand Anderson?
As for the new rift between journalists and flacks, ten years ago us journalists couldn'